Freshwater Diplomacy in the Middle East: Navigating Conflict and Cooperation

The Geopolitical Challenge of Freshwater Scarcity

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is home to 15 of the 20 most water-scarce countries in the world. With per-capita potable water availability significantly below the global average, water scarcity has emerged as a critical security challenge with far-reaching implications for development, stability, and peace. The region’s natural aridity is exacerbated by climate change, population growth, and inefficient water management practices.

What makes freshwater diplomacy particularly challenging in the Middle East is the transboundary nature of its water resources. Most major rivers in the region—including the Nile, Tigris, and Euphrates—originate outside the region, giving downstream Arab countries limited control or leverage over these vital water sources. This geographical reality creates complex power dynamics between upstream and downstream nations.

The average annual rainfall across the region ranges from as low as 18 mm per year in Egypt to 661 mm per year in Lebanon—far below the global average of approximately 1,000 mm. This scarcity is further complicated by the fact that over 80% of water in the region is used for agriculture, creating tensions between agricultural, industrial, and domestic water needs.

Key Transboundary Water Sources and Their Political Significance

The Nile River Basin

The Nile River, flowing through 11 countries, represents one of the most complex transboundary water challenges in the region. Egypt, historically the dominant power in Nile water politics, relies on the river for over 90% of its freshwater needs. However, upstream developments, particularly Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), have fundamentally altered the power dynamics in the basin.

The GERD, Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, has become a flashpoint for tensions between Ethiopia and downstream Egypt and Sudan. While Ethiopia views the dam as essential for its development and energy security, Egypt perceives it as an existential threat to its water supply. Despite years of negotiations, the three countries have failed to reach a binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation.

The Tigris-Euphrates River System

The Tigris-Euphrates river system spans multiple countries with Turkey controlling much of the headwaters.

The Tigris and Euphrates rivers, originating in Turkey and flowing through Syria and Iraq, represent another critical transboundary water challenge. Turkey’s Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), which includes 22 dams, has significantly reduced water flow to downstream countries. Historically, 100 BCM of water flowed annually from Turkey into Iraq, but today that amount has dwindled to just 25 BCM—a 75% decline.

Iraq is particularly vulnerable, as approximately 82% of its water comes from outside its borders. The absence of a comprehensive water-sharing agreement between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq has exacerbated tensions, especially during periods of drought. Recent diplomatic efforts between Iraq and Turkey show promise, but a multilateral framework involving all riparian states remains elusive.

The Jordan River Basin

The Jordan River basin, shared by Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Jordan, and Palestine, illustrates how water scarcity intersects with broader geopolitical conflicts. The river’s flow has diminished dramatically over the decades, from 1.4 billion cubic meters annually in the 1960s to just 275 million cubic meters in the 2000s.

Water rights in the Jordan basin are deeply intertwined with territorial disputes and occupation. Palestinian communities under Israeli occupation suffer from restricted access to their own water resources, forcing many to rely on rainwater collection for survival. Meanwhile, Jordan, one of the world’s most water-scarce countries, depends heavily on the river for its agricultural and domestic needs.

Case Studies: Water-Related Conflicts and Cooperation

The 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty included significant provisions for water-sharing cooperation.

Israel-Jordan Water Cooperation

The 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty represents one of the most successful examples of water diplomacy in the region. The treaty included detailed provisions for water-sharing, with Israel agreeing to provide Jordan with 50 million cubic meters of water annually from the Jordan River. This cooperation has endured despite broader political tensions between the two countries.

More recently, in 2021, Israel and Jordan signed a declaration of intent for a water-for-energy deal, where Jordan would build solar energy capacity to export to Israel in exchange for desalinated water. This innovative approach demonstrates how water diplomacy can create opportunities for broader regional cooperation.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Dispute

The GERD dispute illustrates the challenges of water diplomacy in the absence of effective multilateral frameworks. Despite years of negotiations facilitated by the African Union, the United States, and the World Bank, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have failed to reach a binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation.

The dispute has escalated to threats of military action, with Egypt’s president declaring the Nile waters “a matter of life and death.” This case highlights how water disputes can quickly become securitized when cooperative frameworks fail. It also demonstrates the limitations of international mediation when political will for compromise is lacking.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has become a flashpoint for tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.

Transboundary Aquifer Management

Beyond surface water, the MENA region shares over 40 transboundary aquifers that require cooperative management. The Al-Disi/Al-Saq aquifer, shared by Jordan and Saudi Arabia, illustrates both the challenges and opportunities of groundwater diplomacy. Despite signing a bilateral agreement to limit extraction, both countries have engaged in over-extraction for agricultural projects, creating a classic “tragedy of the commons” scenario.

This case highlights the need for stronger enforcement mechanisms and trust-building measures in transboundary water agreements. It also demonstrates how economic incentives often work against sustainable water management, particularly for non-renewable groundwater resources.

The Role of International Organizations in Water Diplomacy

International organizations play a crucial role in facilitating dialogue on transboundary water issues.

International organizations have played varying roles in mediating water disputes in the Middle East, with mixed results. The United Nations, through agencies like UNESCO and UNEP, has provided technical support and facilitated dialogue on transboundary water management. The World Bank has also been active in financing water infrastructure projects and supporting water governance reforms.

Regional organizations like the Arab League and the Arab Water Council have attempted to address water challenges, but their effectiveness has been limited by political divisions and lack of enforcement mechanisms. The Nile Basin Initiative, established to promote cooperation among Nile riparian states, has struggled to resolve the GERD dispute, highlighting the limitations of existing multilateral frameworks.

Despite these challenges, international organizations continue to play an important role in providing neutral forums for dialogue, technical expertise, and financial resources for water projects. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) has also created a framework for addressing water challenges in a more integrated manner.

Expert Perspectives on Freshwater Diplomacy

“Water diplomacy is deteriorating in the MENA region, but if the appropriate forum is provided and there is sufficient political will, states can resolve their water disputes through sustained diplomacy.”

— Dr. Adel Abdel Ghafar, Senior Fellow, Middle East Council

Experts emphasize that water diplomacy requires a shift from viewing water allocation as a zero-sum game to recognizing the mutual benefits of cooperation. As Dr. Susanne Schmeier of the IHE Delft Institute notes, “With the right tools, water can become a source for peacebuilding rather than conflict.”

Regional water policies have evolved over time, with varying degrees of success. Saudi Arabia’s National Water Strategy 2030 aims to reduce water consumption and increase reliance on renewable water resources. Jordan’s Water Strategy 2016-2025 focuses on improving water efficiency and expanding non-conventional water resources like desalination.

However, experts point out that these national strategies often fail to adequately address transboundary water challenges. As Benjamin Pohl of adelphi argues, “Foreign policy should engage with political realities rather than technical solutions alone” when addressing water disputes.

Regional cooperation on water policy requires engagement at the highest political levels.

Sustainable Solutions for Water-Sharing Agreements

Creating Effective Multilateral Frameworks

One of the most promising approaches to freshwater diplomacy in the Middle East is the creation of more effective multilateral frameworks. The proposed “MENA+ Water Forum” could bring together countries from the region and neighboring upstream states to discuss water affairs in a more inclusive manner.

Such a forum would need to set common ground rules that all stakeholders agree to abide by, provide space for confidence-building measures, and facilitate information exchange to close knowledge gaps. The Gulf Cooperation Council’s Water Sciences and Technology Association offers a model that could be expanded to include the entire MENA region and neighboring countries.

Advanced water management technologies can help maximize the efficiency of limited water resources.

Technical and Financial Innovations

Beyond diplomatic frameworks, technical and financial innovations are essential for sustainable water management. Water augmentation projects, such as desalination and cloud seeding, can supplement traditional water sources. Water conservation initiatives, including upgraded infrastructure, efficient irrigation systems, and water recycling, can maximize the use of existing resources.

Financing these initiatives requires creative approaches. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Green Climate Fund offers one potential funding source for water security projects as a form of climate adaptation. Regional development banks and international financial institutions can also play a crucial role in supporting transboundary water projects.

Climate-Resilient Water Agreements

As climate change intensifies, water-sharing agreements must become more adaptive and resilient. Fixed water allocations based on historical flows are increasingly unsuitable in an era of greater hydrological variability. Instead, agreements should incorporate flexible allocation mechanisms that can adjust to changing conditions.

Climate-resilient agreements should also address extreme events like floods and droughts, which are becoming more frequent and severe. Joint early warning systems, coordinated reservoir operations, and shared contingency plans can help riparian states manage these challenges collectively rather than competitively.

Developing effective water-sharing agreements requires technical expertise and diplomatic skill.

Conclusion: The Future of Freshwater Diplomacy in the Middle East

Collaborative approaches to water management offer hope for a more water-secure future in the Middle East.

The future of freshwater diplomacy in the Middle East will be shaped by how countries respond to the dual challenges of water scarcity and climate change. While the path forward is fraught with obstacles, there are also unprecedented opportunities for cooperation that could transform regional relations.

Effective freshwater diplomacy requires a shared understanding between parties that they need to cooperate to survive. Failure to do so could result in destabilizing consequences that extend far beyond water resources. This reality should inspire international actors to put more effort into supporting the MENA region in resolving its water challenges.

By deepening diplomatic engagement, increasing knowledge sharing, and implementing joint projects, countries in the Middle East and their neighbors can preserve shared water resources for future generations. Rivers and aquifers will continue to play a key role as strategic reserves of water, but they must be managed in more sustainable ways.

The solution lies not in technical fixes alone, but in addressing underlying conflicts, building trust, and creating institutions that can manage shared resources equitably. As water becomes increasingly scarce, the choice between conflict and cooperation becomes ever more consequential for the region’s future.